November 03, 2004

My own Ohio projection

I just extrapolated all the vote tallies of the counties in Ohio which have not yet provided 100% precinct reporting. With 78% of precincts reporting, Bush has a 51-49 lead in Ohio, amounting to about 129,000 votes. If all the incomplete counties have their remaining precincts allocate their votes the same proportion as the partial returns, Kerry will reduce this gap by some 78,300 votes when all is said and done. This would leave Bush with a margin of victory of 50,700 votes out of 5.6 million ballots cast. This is pretty close, but not Florida 2000 close, and a margin that big will be hard to move via litigation after the fact.

We should be close to calling Ohio soon, and with it the election in favor of President Bush.

Posted by JKS at November 3, 2004 05:36 AM
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